As Peltola’s lead widens in Alaska Senate race, Trump’s ‘voter confusion’ argument crumbles

Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race, now leads with a vote count eclipsing the combined votes of all three other candidates in the race, including incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R).

While the race has not yet been called, her growing lead further undermines an argument by President Donald Trump that the race should not be certified if she wins.

Trump has demanded that votes for two little-known candidates in the race, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald L. Heikes, be handed over to Sen. Sullivan, alleging that they are Democratic plants intended to confuse voters and siphon off votes from the GOP incumbent.

“All votes going to the Fake Dan Sullivan, which was done solely for the purpose of fraud and confusion, should immediately be given to the Real Dan Sullivan (Senator!) – Likewise the votes of the second fraudulent candidate, also put up by the Dems. There should be no question concerning this Rigged Election,” Trump said in a social media post on Nov. 10.

Now that Peltola has pulled ahead of all three opponents combined, Trump’s argument — which has no legal or historical precedent — increasingly fails on its own weak logic.

As of Sunday afternoon, Peltola had 140,637 votes, according to the latest numbers from Alaska’s Division of Elections. That puts her 559 votes ahead of the other three candidates. 

Peltola is also less than 0.1% shy of the 50% threshold needed for an outright win. That would mean she would bypass additional rounds of vote distribution required under the state’s ranked-choice voting system if the leading candidate falls short of 50% of votes.  

Not only has Trump’s logic fallen apart, but likely so has the U.S. Department of Justice’s (DOJ) lawsuit against Alaska, which also argues that voter confusion would sully any race outcome that does not have Sen. Sullivan as the winner. 

The lawsuit asks for a court to “[p]reliminarily and permanently enjoin [Alaska] from certifying any result that may be impacted by voter confusion, as defined above, pending an investigation to determine whether votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan were meant to be cast for Senator Sullivan and any further procedures or relief this Court deems necessary and appropriate to determine what the result would have been absent Daniel J. Sullivan’s inclusion on the Ballot.”

The math behind Peltola’s current lead presumably renders that relief moot.

A federal district court rejected the DOJ’s lawsuit, but the department swiftly filed a notice of its intent to appeal that decision. However, the DOJ has not yet filed an appeals brief outlining the legal argument for why it believes Alaska’s Senate race results should not be certified if Sen. Sullivan loses. 

Currently, 97% of the vote has been counted. While the race has not yet been called by any major outlet, NBC News has reported that Peltola is likely to win.