Black Voters in Arizona Could Be the Reason Harris Wins in 2024
A few weeks ago, I was in a meeting with several Black leaders in Phoenix when someone asked: Why is it that when political candidates visit Arizona, they host events targeting Latinx voters and white voters, but never in our memories has anyone hosted an event specifically for the Black community? Don’t they know Black voters may just be the key to winning Arizona?
It’s the truth.
With 21 voting and election lawsuits filed so far this cycle, Arizona is one of the most litigated states.
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Pundits and politicians have, in recent years, spent a lot of time talking about the Black vote in Georgia and the Latinx vote in Arizona. Rarely do they focus on the Latinx vote in Georgia and the Black vote in Arizona — but they should.
Yes, winning votes is a numbers game and candidates want to target the largest groups in every state — but let’s not forget that President Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020 by 10,457 votes. There are more than 20 times that many Black voters in Arizona — enough to win the state by a landslide. With Kamala Harris facing the closest presidential race in 60 years, Democrats can’t afford to overlook the power of Black Arizonans.
Nationally, Black Americans have some of the highest voter turnout rates of any demographic — and in recent years, that’s also been true in Arizona. There are more Black elected officials holding public office in Arizona today than ever before, largely because Black voters turned out in record numbers in 2020. Along with several other grassroots groups, my organization, Our Voice, Our Vote Arizona, led major canvassing and organizing efforts that energized our communities to make their voices heard and their desires for change known.
If population trends tell us anything, the power of Arizona’s Black vote will only be stronger this year than ever before, and it will continue to build for years to come.
For one thing, Gen-Z is the most politically engaged generation in history, and nearly half of the 8 million new voters who have aged into the electorate since 2022 are young people of color. Second, outside of Houston and Dallas, Maricopa County has the fastest-growing Black population of any city in the U.S. And third, the most recent data on Black entrepreneurship shows that the number of Black-owned businesses in Phoenix is growing rapidly, despite persistent barriers to startup capital and financing.
For these reasons and more, political candidates should wake up to the fact that Black Arizonans are building the economic and civic power in this battleground state to sway entire presidential elections.
Is it a coincidence that 2020 was a record year for Black voter turnout in Arizona? I doubt it.
The issues at stake in the 2024 presidential race affect all Americans, but they are especially close to home in Arizona. Economic opportunity, voting rights, reproductive freedom and immigration are on the ballot — not just figuratively, in the sense that voters are choosing between two very different leaders with diametrically opposed visions for America’s future, but also literally, in the form of statewide ballot initiatives that will have immediate consequences in Arizona.
Prop 139, for example, will protect reproductive freedom for all Arizonans. Donald Trump is playing to win our state by turning out his base, but Kamala Harris has something he doesn’t: The endorsement of Arizona’s largest member-led Black organizing group.
At Our Voice, Our Vote Arizona where I am the executive director, our canvassers and organizers are knocking on doors and talking to voters every day. In 2024 alone, our volunteers have knocked on almost 450,000 doors, registered more than 8,000 new voters and had over 40,000 conversations with Arizonans throughout the state.
Every door we knock on opens up a dialogue about the Arizona we want to build — an Arizona where our air is clear and healthy, immigrants are celebrated and housing is affordable for everyone. Black voters are fired up to elect the first Black woman president, but our votes aren’t given, they’re earned — and Democrats still need to earn them.
2020 was the year Donald Trump lost Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes. It was also the year a historic number of Black candidates were elected to public office. Is it a coincidence that 2020 was a record year for Black voter turnout in Arizona? I doubt it.
Analysis shows increased Black voter participation from 2016 to 2020 tipped the scales in Biden’s favor, delivering nearly three times the votes needed to win the battleground state. My message to Black Arizonans is: your vote has more power than you realize. To our candidates, my advice is: recognize it.
Sena Mohammed is the executive director of Our Voice, Our Vote Arizona, a member-led organization committed to advocating for sustainable progressive public policies that address the most pressing issues in Arizona’s Black communities.